This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to chase this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite contests to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a good quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the easiest money game punt of time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is now -195 and if we’re getting 5-rounds out of JJ using the striking volume she puts out then we have a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter whether she loses or wins. At that price tag she allows you to pay up for a few heavy favorites and when we can get 4 additional areas to win with a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this fight gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at one 10-point dip down. If that can be in the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so he can’t have a lot of time at the game left. I think we function together with the favored here and toss him into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. I think he’s a live underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I’d be worried about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of both but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a good flooring here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing because I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of the two though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this battle and can win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and when he’s becoming bogged up on the feet I’m certain that he will be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and that I think he has a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a few fighters this week personally, but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not believe she can win, because she for certain can, and I think she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I think we would require a finish from her in this fight to get 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to happen. Or, she’ll want FightMetric to count all her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her career is 83 DK points and that has been contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward that still would not be enough here to put her in the winning lineup in her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups that Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a win it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings analysis, as well as all my select predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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